From: David Rudiak <DRudiak@earthlink.net>
Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2003 11:52:24 -0700
Fwd Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2003 17:23:49 -0400
Subject: Re: Investigator's Right and Debunking Hypocrisy -


>From: Robert Gates <RGates8254@aol.com>
>To: <ufoupdates@virtuallystrange.net>
>Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 23:58:11 EDT
>Subject: Re: Investigator's Right & Debunking Hypocrisy -

>>From: David Rudiak <DRudiak@earthlink.net>
>>To: <ufoupdates@virtuallystrange.net>
>>Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 09:19:25 -0700
>>Subject: Investigator's Right & Debunking Hypocrisy

<snip>

>>I recently became aware of the article and am drafting a letter
>>of response to the Inquirer right now. Thomas did exactly the
>>same thing as Printy, claiming that since he could reproduce
>>Moore's (bogus) calculation, Moore was right and I was
>>mathematically "incompetent." The problem was, Moore's
>>calculation was full of "mistakes" and the mathematical
>>equivalent of 2 + 2 = 3. All the fatal math mistakes were
>>pointed out on my website, but Thomas, naturally, doesn't
>>mention a single one of them, calling them only "quibbles" and
>>"shrill accusations."

>It is a serious topic matter but in ways the skeptibunker
>concept that they floated caused me to laugh more then once. The
>concept goes something to the effect of "Well if you can see how
>the bogus math problem was created, then somehow, someway, it
>was in fact correct. Example being 2 plus 2 = 5. According to
>the skeptibunker rationale all you have to do is be able to
>duplicate the mistake, then that makes the original correct.

Bob,

Both Printy and Thomas argued that they figured out how Moore
did it whereas I hadn't completely, therefore this made Moore
right and me "incompetent" and a character assassination for
claiming Moore was a hoaxer.

The problem was that both Printy and Thomas never figured out
that Moore did do it _wrong_. Either that or they knew better
and told the Big Lie instead rather than admit that one of their
own was a hoaxer.

They were just following the cardinal rules of religious
debunkery, "Never admit error," and "Never say ill of a fellow
debunker."

>>(If you read Thomas' article, do note that Moore "didn't want to
>>get into the math" when Thomas spoke to him. This is a tacit
>>admission by Moore that he can't defend his math, instead
>>letting propaganda lackeys like Thomas and Printy try to do it
>>for him.)

>David is correct here. Since Moore "didn't want to get into the
>math" then Moore or Thomas want to duck the math subject.
>Doesn't say much about the accuracy of the math.

I know that if somebody accused me of hoaxing my math and I knew
otherwise, the very _first_ thing I would want to get into was
the math, since it would be my best defense.

Thomas' "math" is limited to reproducing Moore's (bogus)
calculation, and although referencing my website, deliberately
avoids the many arguments that actually disprove Moore's math.
Instead Thomas tries to make light of the website, referring
only to its "mindnumbing" length, as if it wasn't even worth his
time to read.

But of course he had plenty of time to write a thoroughly
dishonest hit piece without dealing with his opponent's real
arguments. Ironically Thomas says he's a practicing physicist
and science educator. This is a very strange form of "science"
that Thomas practices. It's more the modus operandi of a
propagandist than a scientist.

>As I recall even if the math was accurate the closest you could
>drop a balloon was 17 miles, so bottom line, best case scenario
>is the theory is 17 miles short.

Moore used to say that, according to his memory, the closest
they tracked Flight #4 was to within 17 miles of the Foster
Ranch. That's apparently where that "17 mile" figure came from.
He also said that the "trick" would be getting the balloon those
last 17 miles up to the ranch against the prevailing winds.

He also has claimed that he has a very vivid memory of them
tracking the balloon in the vicinity of Arabela and Capitan
peak, about 70 miles to the NE of Alamogordo. These locations
are actually over 20 miles from the debris field crash site at
the Foster Ranch to the north.

Moore's original model in 1995 had him assuming winds that took
the balloon directly to Arabela and Capitan. See:

http://www.roswellproof.com/Flight4and5_changes.html

But when he got a hold of real wind data, the winds were
actually blowing too strongly to the east and curving the
balloons away to the east from Arabela/Capitan. If you run his
model with these winds, the trajectory of Flight #4 now passes
no closer than 15 miles SE of Arabela/Capitan (thus 35-40 miles
from the ranch, not 17) and keeps going over 30 miles further to
the NE before it rises high enough to catch winds taking it back
to the west.

So the actual winds and actual model have Flight #4 missing
Arabela/Capitan in a big way. In order to get his balloon "back
on track" so that it passes by Arabela/Capitan to conform to his
ancient memory, Moore used two subtle cheats to shorten this
trajectory. One had him changing the numbers in his table so the
balloon rose too fast, in violation of his actual stated
assumptions of perfect equipment and flight. The other was the
miscalculation of his table the Printy/Thomas way by pushing
back all data points to shave another 30 minutes off the ascent.
These and other cheats (such as having the balloon drop much too
fast) are how he manages to get his balloon "exactly" to the the
Arabela area and "exactly" to the Foster Ranch.

Moore's model seems pinned to his ancient memory of them
tracking Flight #4 near Arabela/Capitan and also Bluewater, N.M.
He further claims this would have been the _only_ time he would
have heard these "exotic" names associated with any Mogul
flight.

There was one such balloon in Mogul records, but it wasn't
Flight #4. It was Flight #17 from 3 months later. It passed
right over Arabela/Capitan/Bluewater on a northeastly trajectory
that took it into Kansas. Obviously Moore's claim that he would
never would have heard these names associated with any other
flight other than Flight #4 is false. Moore's ancient memories
are, therefore, just as open to question as those of any other
witness.

Flight #17 is the only Mogul that I could find in over 50
_documented_ flights in old Mogul documents (reprinted in the
1995 AF Report) that seemed to have passed anywhere close to the
Foster Ranch. (Prevailing winds just did not take balloons in
that direction.) For a plot of it's trajectory, see my Flight #4
addendums section, on "What Does Moore Remember?"

http://www.roswellproof.com/Flight4_Addendums.html

I speculate that maybe Moore was really remembering this flight
rather than Flight #4, a much more conservative memory time
compression theory than the Air Force's "crash dummies"-from-
the-next-decade to explain the bodies.


David Rudiak